Thursday, February 23, 2017

The Many Ways to Transfer Risk

There are four legitimate ways to treat risk: avoid it, accept it, mitigate it, and transfer it.  If “transferring risk” is thought of at all in cyber security, it is usually about buying an insurance policy.  And in fact cyber insurance is a rapidly growing market, although one with teething problems.  Exactly what losses will be covered, and how will the extent of loss be determined?  Will there be favorable pricing for firms that have a good security program in place, and if so who will determine the effectiveness of the program a firm claims to have?  What about the moral hazard problem:  will insured parties have incentive to be lax about or misrepresent their security programs?  How will rates be determined, given the carriers’ relative lack of loss data, compared to other insured hazards?

Nevertheless, insurance carriers are keen to the opportunity and are developing packages of services that bundle legal advice and incident response with traditional insurance.

There are other ways to transfer risk, some of which look like “buying insurance” in a different guise, and some that look totally different.  Financial institutions and other investors can hedge their investment positions by buying options or other derivative instruments.  Credit default swaps (CDS) can insure a lender against default by a borrower – assuming the seller of the swap has the financial capacity to cover the default. (Overuse and underestimating the risk of CDS’s contributed significantly to the 2008 financial crisis.)

A firm can also transfer risk, either partially or totally, to other firms through normal commercial contracts – other than insurance policies.  Many business-to-business contracts include service level agreements or other assurances of a minimum level of quality, sometimes with financial penalties for non-performance.  The seller may have some ability to negotiate service level terms, depending on its market power relative to the buyer.  I will likely not be successful in demanding a 99% on-time delivery guarantee from Amazon, but Amazon may get one with UPS.

Commercial contracts commonly have disclaimers, representations and warranties that protect suppliers from claims by customers. Whether such clauses can be used to protect a firm from cyber security risks depends on who has the market power, but also what is customary and reasonable.  A service provider may get a customer to agree that it is responsible to protect its users’ passwords and network connection points.  More generally, SSAE16 audit reports contain a section on the controls that the service provider relies on the customer to implement.  In other words, “don’t blame me if the controls fail because of something you did.”

Transferring risk using contracts has its limits.  The extent of risk transfer is often limited, either in scope (kind of risk or conditions) or in amount (amount of loss, number of occurrences).  Even if the risk is legally transferred, it may not be practically transferred.  The other party may not have the capacity, financial or otherwise, to absorb the risk.  And even if it does, your firm may experience some degree of loss.  We may agree that you are responsible to protect your passwords, but if an attacker penetrates my network due to your negligence, I still have an incident to manage.  Finally, recognize the difference between the probability that a loss may occur, and the amount of loss if it does occur.  A conventional insurance policy protects the holder against some portion of the loss amount, whereas a supplier’s commitment to a robust security program should reduce the likelihood that a loss will occur at all.

Among the four recognized types of risk treatment, transferring the risk to a counterparty is one that is often overlooked as a management option.  Transferring risk is the sibling of avoiding risk, and a strategy well worth considering.  It is easy to fall into the trap of ignoring these two options if cybersecurity is over-delegated to IT engineers.

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